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The Rolling Sovereign Debt Crisis: Learn Currency Strategic Tactics

May 3rd 2010, By Dale Pinkert

It is my belief that The Greek default crisis is but the first domino to take place in the Euro zone and after downgrades of Portugal and Spain it doesn’t take being Nostradamus to see this contagion rolling through Europe. If you believe that the rescue of Greece will contain this then you also believed the U.S. Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke when he said the sub-prime crisis is contained to those junk securities. We all know the outcome of that forecast and the trillions of bailout funds that followed.

Let’s call Europe ground zero for this sovereign debt crisis and to grasp the magnitude of this we need to look no further than the definition of “sovereign” which mean above all others, the prime and quality of the debt food chain. We are not talking about the tragic fallout of foreclosures, high unemployment, failing industries or financial institutions, this is even a jump over those hardships on the financial richter scale. We are witnessing the insolvency of Nation States not seen in Europe since the failure of the Weimar Republic when German banknotes were used as fuel. It was cheaper to use than wood.

Learning currency strategies to hedge yourself as citizens of the country under duress or as a speculator voting up or down on the stock of that nations currency, can both protect the citizen and enrich the effective currency trader. If you are coming to this financial event a bit late, since The Euro anticipating these events has already fallen quite sharply from 1.51 to 1.33 and although more are now talking parity my target is 1.15 this is only act 1 of a 3 act production.

After the majority of this unwinding is completing in Europe I believe the contagion will then spread across the English channel to the U.K. The British Pound having elected to stay out of the euro has been more insulated and has not fallen as hard against USD as the Euro, but that could change quite soon after the elections on May 6th.

Bearish currency systems will begin to target the GBP as a more favored short over the EUR and this is act 2. The finale and act 3 happens across the pond here in the U.S, best guess late this year or spring of 2011 and this will be far enough away for all to prepare and learn currency strategies to preserve our wealth or even capitalize on the rolling Sovereign debt crisis in our home countries or abroad from our laptops and pc’s. In an era where cash is King, our challenge as currency traders will be cash denominated in what and when!

 

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